[Personal] 2025 Annual Investment Performance Review

My overall investment performance for this year is conservatively estimated to be around 37.37% or higher.

Although in terms of actual total profit amount, it wasn’t as good as last year, the overall performance still outperformed the market index.

Calculation Method

To ensure the accuracy of the performance calculation, I used the following methods:

Taiwan Stocks: Compared utilizing brokerage statements. Since there were stock pledging activities and significant capital movements to US stocks this year, simply looking at market value would be inaccurate, so statements were used as the standard.
US Stocks:
- Charles Schwab: Positions remained in the market, so I directly used the unrealized/realized P&L provided by the brokerage.
- HSBC (Sub-brokerage): Compared utilizing statements.
Exclusions: Cash positions on hand and Bitcoin (BTC) are not included in this performance statistic.

The April Correction: Although I had kept some cash in reserve beforehand, due to FOMO, I entered the market too quickly via “left-side trading” (buying the dip prematurely). As a result, I still took a significant hit from the panic selling correction.
Short-term Operations: During the NBIS pullback in late October, I was initially too conservative. The 5-day chart showed clear volume, and I should have added to my position then, but I didn’t. I entered a day late and missed out on roughly 7% gains.
- Extension: Later, caused by FOMO from this missed opportunity, and combined with news of AI shorting, when NBIS pulled back again, I once again persisted with left-side trading and added to my position. I entered too early and increased my exposure significantly (bringing the weighting close to 25% of my US portfolio). After calming down and re-evaluating, I decided to cut my losses and reduce the position to 5% of the total portfolio. This back-and-forth effectively wiped out the short-term gains made earlier.
Taiwan Stock - GlobalWafers (6488): I was stuck in this position for quite a while. I should have started slowly exiting when it touched 580, but I didn’t. Even when it slowly retreated to 500, I didn’t realize I should exit. In the end, I ate a limit-down (10% drop) directly and only ran the next day. The loss on this trade was heavy, almost wiping out all my gains from Taiwan stocks this year.

The April Correction (Redemption): Although I mentioned bad operations during the April dip earlier, I made immediate corrections later. Once I confirmed the market had entered the “right-side” (trend confirmation), I followed the trend and opened a position in AMZN. Looking back now, this operation was correct.
- Extension: Next time a similar situation occurs, I should directly sell broadly diversified index positions (VOO, QQQ) and switch into 3x Leveraged ETFs or Tech Giants during the buy-in. Catching this kind of rebound contributes significantly to the annual performance performance.
November Correction: I picked up RKLB around the end of November. Looking back now, it was a very good choice.
GGLL, NVDL: I successfully took profits and exited at relative highs. Especially GGLL - I have always been a GOOGLE solo-stan. After realizing the stock had significant growth potential, I opened a position in GGLL. After the browser antitrust investigation concluded in September, I also exited GGLL with the trend and switched to holding the underlying stock and other investment targets, capturing the earnings from the event.

Volatility this year was mostly severe, and the speed of pullbacks and rebounds was fast. With the stock market in a high consolidation zone, it is very sensitive to news, often resulting in “overreaction” scenarios.
- Derivative: Conversely, if it is a target you are bullish on for the long term, the first day of a pullback is basically always a good buying point.
To earn big this year, the key should be whether you can seize opportunities during rebounds. Time moves fast, so the movement of capital needs to be even faster. The advantage of using a US brokerage is clearly verified here. Sub-brokerage (like HSBC) requires waiting for settlement funds to arrive, which is much slower in terms of time. Alternatively, maintaining cash positions at a certain level makes it more likely to pick up these “rebound dividends”. The core concept remains the same: Holding cost must be low enough.
As mentioned earlier, volatility is severe. Sometimes if you only realize you are “eating bamboo shoots” (taking a loss/stuck) on the third or fourth day, there is no point in selling the stock then. Just wait for a rebound to decide whether to sell.